Channel for the "Taliban" - Water shortages for neighbors: Is Uzbekistan at risk of running out of water?

The Syr Darya and Amu Darya are the two largest rivers in Central Asia, providing essential water resources to the countries in the region. The Amu Darya, which originates in the Pamir Mountains, is formed by the confluence of the Panj and Vakhsh rivers. It flows through Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan before emptying into the former Aral Sea. Any changes in its water distribution pose potential threats to the ecosystems and economies of these nations.

One of the key water objects in the region is the Karakum Canal (formerly known as the Lenin Canal), which supplies 80% of Turkmenistan's water needs. The canal stretches for 1,375 km, with a water intake from the Amu Darya reaching up to 500 cubic meters per second. However, a new threat to the region is associated with another water project—the Kushtepa, a canal that Afghanistan has been actively constructing since 2021.

Kushtepa is Afghanistan's largest infrastructure project in the field of water resources. Construction is being carried out without concrete reinforcement of the banks and channel, leading to significant water losses. Its capacity will be 600 cubic meters of water per second, which is 2.5 times greater than the flow of the Chirchik River.

Dr. Sobir Mamadiyorovich Kodirov, a PhD in technical sciences, explains: “This canal is being built without reinforcements, directing water into sandy areas, and a significant portion will simply seep into the soil. However, the main problem is that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will be left without the necessary water volumes for agriculture and drinking water supply. Afghanistan lacks the infrastructure to utilize this water. They have a canal, but no system of pumping stations or infrastructure to deliver water to the fields. It’s like having a garage but no car.”

If Kushtepa operates at full capacity, the consequences will be catastrophic: A sharp drop in the water level of the Amu Darya will affect water supply in the regions of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Pumping stations will cease operation as the intake structures will be above the river level. Drought will intensify, especially in Karakalpakstan, and the Aral Sea will dry up even faster. The frequency of dust storms will increase. International tensions may escalate due to competition over water resources. Economic sanctions against Afghanistan from neighboring countries are also possible.

Uzbekistan is already taking steps to prevent a crisis. In 2023, Abduaziz Kamilov held talks in Kabul, where water cooperation was discussed. However, comprehensive action is needed: an international agreement on the use of transboundary waters must be achieved. Joint projects for modernizing the water supply system, including the construction of dams and reservoirs, should be proposed to Afghanistan. It is crucial to implement technologies that reduce water losses and enhance the efficient use of water resources. Electricity exports could become a leverage point for influencing Afghanistan.

The water crisis poses a significant challenge that requires decisive and well-considered actions. History shows that Uzbekistan has always found compromises even in the most difficult situations. We hope that Uzbekistan will not be without water in the next 10 years.