The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has maintained the key interest rate at 13.5%.

The bank's statement highlights that, despite the anticipated reduction in the impact of last year's energy price liberalization, high inflation expectations persist, necessitating the maintenance of tight monetary conditions. The decision made aims to steer core inflation rates and inflation expectations back to a stable downward trajectory and create conditions to achieve a 5% inflation target in the medium term.

Overall inflation has been on a downward trend since October 2024, standing at 9.8% year-on-year in December. However, core inflation slightly accelerated in December, reaching 7.2%. This indicates the presence of pro-inflationary factors linked to increased aggregate demand.

The country's economy maintains a high level of consumer and investment activity, contributing to an increase in real incomes. In November and December 2024, there was a rise in inflation expectations among the public and entrepreneurs, attributed to seasonal factors.

In 2025, GDP growth is projected to be around 6%. The growth rate of private investments will support economic growth, facilitating an increase in the supply of goods and services.

The regulator also noted that the level of the real effective exchange rate strengthened somewhat in the last months of 2024. It is expected to approach the level of its medium-term trend in 2025.

To ensure medium-term price stability, the Central Bank will continue to maintain tight monetary conditions. Should inflationary pressures intensify, these conditions may be revised.

According to updated forecasts, overall inflation is expected to be in the range of 7-8% by the end of 2025. The Central Bank will continue to monitor the macroeconomic situation and take appropriate measures to achieve the 5% inflation target in the medium term.