Uzbekistan and Russia: Growth prospects for trade turnover amid sanctions pressure.

Sanctions against Russia began to be imposed back in 2014, following the annexation of Crimea. At that time, restrictions were introduced by the USA, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, and several other countries. After February 2022, the pressure from sanctions intensified sharply. Western nations introduced thousands of new restrictions against Russia, including: disconnection of major Russian banks from SWIFT, freezing of assets belonging to Russian companies and individuals abroad, bans on the supply of high-tech products, limitations on oil and gas exports, prohibitions on investments in the Russian economy, and personal sanctions against Russian politicians, businessmen, and officials. In addition to the USA, EU, and the UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, and even traditionally neutral Sweden joined the sanctions. In this context, the question arises: is it feasible to increase trade turnover to $30 billion under such conditions?

According to PhD in Economics Nodira Zikrillaeva, the goal is quite achievable if we consider China's influence on these processes and aim to increase the pace of economic interaction by 25% annually. "If the economic dynamics maintain this pace, we can achieve this goal under the current conditions and existing variables. However, new factors may emerge that could influence this process," the expert notes. The economist also emphasizes the need to create new institutions and effective tools to support economic interaction. In particular, she suggests establishing a separate bank for mutual settlements between Russia and Uzbekistan to mitigate risks associated with using SWIFT. However, there is a likelihood that such a mechanism may itself come under sanctions pressure.

Deputy Head of the Tashkent Office of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Uzbekistan, Jamshid Salikhov, points out: "Western sanctions against Russia have had a mixed impact on trade turnover with Uzbekistan. In 2024, it exceeded $10 billion for the first time, showing a growth of 27%. However, sanctions have complicated payments for foreign economic operations, resulting in a 5% decrease in imports from Russia to Uzbekistan." According to him, despite all the challenges, trade between the countries continues to develop, and if the current growth rates are maintained, the stated goal remains achievable.

International lawyer Saidaziz Alimov comments on the legal aspects: "Uzbekistan, as a sovereign state, is not obliged to adhere to the sanctions of the USA, EU, and UK. Moreover, the EU's special envoy for sanctions, David O'Sullivan, has stated that the European Union does not require Tashkent to comply with its sanctions." However, he notes that the USA holds a different position: "The wording of the American sanctions regime is such that any transaction can be regarded as providing material assistance and may carry the risk of secondary sanctions. This creates uncertainty for Uzbek businesses when cooperating with Russian companies that are under sanctions."

Economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and Russia is developing under contradictory factors. On one hand, overall trade turnover is growing, while on the other, sanctions complicate financial calculations and create obstacles for imports from Russia.

Despite the optimistic assessments of economists, the sanctions remain a key challenge. To achieve the ambitious goal of $30 billion by 2030, there will need to be the development of new financial instruments, flexibility in international settlements, and a balanced state policy capable of navigating between geopolitical risks and the economic interests of the country.

Journalist Saiyora Rustamova
Operator – Mivakhid Mirrahimov