Trump's visit to Central Asia may indicate the region's significance in his foreign policy, according to an expert.

According to Denis Borisov, head of the "Center for Regional Comparative Studies: Russia – Central Asia" at Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management and director of the ANO "Siberian Society for International Studies," the likelihood of Trump's visit may serve as a significant marker of the region's priority in his foreign policy. In an article for Podrobno.uz, the expert discussed what else Trump's return to power could mean for our region.

"The arrival of a new U.S. president implies adjustments to the country's internal and external policies. As the saying goes, 'A new broom sweeps clean.' However, such novelty was hard to even imagine: the Panama Canal, Canada, Greenland, the Gulf of America," Borisov stated.

He noted that against the backdrop of such reforms, one can't help but recall the second part of the proverb: "… sweeps clean until it breaks." Nevertheless, on January 20, 2025, the 47th president of the United States will take office, meaning the ambitions of the new leader of the superpower will set conditions for the entire global system.

"If you look closely, you can find logic in Trump's program, as he acts like a venture investor in politics: investing in various startups, 90% of which are likely to 'fail,' but 10% will yield dividends and cover all expenses. In other words, if he implements at least one of his foreign policy initiatives, he will etch his name in history in big letters. That's what a venture politician looks like," the expert emphasized.

The Central Asian region has been a focal point for U.S. foreign policy since the late 1990s. Over these thirty years, administrations have changed, but the course of the U.S. approach to Central Asia has remained largely consistent.

The formula for U.S. foreign policy in the region was articulated back in 1996 by James Collins, a senior advisor to the U.S. Secretary of State for the CIS. It includes the following directions:

• support for the sovereignty and independence of Central Asian countries within the context of American policies to contain China and Russia;

• assistance in building free markets and democracy in the context of expanding access for Western companies and investments in Central Asian countries;

• integration into global political and financial institutions, as well as participation in Euro-Atlantic security dialogue. This will help solidify the role of Western financial institutions and tools in international relations and expand Western influence in Central Asia's security sphere;

• encouragement of regional cooperation (an addition to point 1);

• counteraction to new threats to regional security (an addition to point 3);

• strengthening American commercial interests and diversification of U.S. energy supplies (last on the list but not in importance).

"The presence of Democrats or Republicans in the Oval Office has never substantively affected these six points but has influenced the form of implementation of international relations with Central Asian states," the interlocutor emphasized.

According to Borisov, Democrats traditionally emphasize moralizing and social engineering in the spirit of Western societal ideals, while Republicans adopt a more pragmatic approach based on 'just business, nothing personal.'

"Accordingly, Trump's second presidency is likely to continue the strategic line of previous periods, but with some adjustments for the current moment," he noted.

"The first thing that will probably be focused on is a more systematic approach to addressing the 'China challenge,' which is understood as expanding access for Western companies to the development of energy and rare earth resources in Central Asia.

Additionally, the expert believes there will be support for the multi-vector foreign policies of Central Asian countries and efforts to ensure the dollar's priority in external trade with them.

Among other issues that will receive attention under Trump are maintaining consultations with the region through military agencies and promoting Western technologies of the sixth technological wave.

"At the same time, it should be noted that Donald Trump's foreign policy is a new interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. The U.S. is contracting to restore order in the Western Hemisphere and within the collective West for subsequent expansion under Jay David Vance. In this context, interaction in the Eurasian space will be maximally pragmatized," Borisov stated.

The expert also pointed out that the likelihood of the U.S. president visiting the region can be considered a significant marker of Central Asia's priority in Washington's foreign policy.

"During his previous term, Donald Trump only addressed Central Asian affairs in his last year, sending his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, on a routine tour. The year 2025 will be interesting; we’ll be watching," Borisov concluded.

It is worth noting that earlier, former U.S. Navy officer James Durso, in his article for the magazine Responsible Statecraft, referred to Central Asia as a "blind spot that Trump cannot afford to ignore." He urged the elected president to pay more attention to the region during his second presidential term and to visit Central Asian countries.