Wednesday05 February 2025
centralasiabusiness.com

The Central Bank forecasts Uzbekistan's GDP to grow by 6% this year.

The Chairman of the Central Bank, Timur Ishmetov, announced that Uzbekistan's GDP is expected to grow by 6% this year. He shared this information during a press conference following the Central Bank's board meeting on January 23rd.
Центральный банк прогнозирует, что ВВП Узбекистана вырастет на 6% в текущем году.

According to his words , the main factors driving economic growth will be high economic activity and an increase in investment volumes. An improvement in the current account balance and the stability of the exchange rate of the sum will also contribute to economic growth.

It is also forecasted that strict external financial conditions will ease, which will reduce pressure on the real effective exchange rate. According to calculations by international financial organizations, global economic growth is expected to be around 2.7-3.3% in 2025, while global inflation will decrease to 4.2%.

"It is anticipated that the rise in global prices for certain food products over a specific period may impact domestic prices. Appropriate measures will be taken in collaboration with the responsible ministries and agencies to mitigate these effects," said Ishmetov.

Inflation is expected to be around 7-8% in 2025, thanks to the decline in global inflation and the continuation of economic growth. The growth rate of the economy in 2024 was 6.5%, attributed to an increase in investment volumes and rising real incomes of the population. The total volume of loans issued to the economy increased by 14.3% compared to 2023, amounting to 287 trillion sums.

Inflation for non-food products remained at the level of 2023, standing at 7.7%. Inflation for services, including energy tariffs, rose to 26.7%.

Furthermore, the number of interbank transactions increased by 31% in 2024, while revenues from trade and paid services grew by 29%. Through the channel of cross-border transfers, $14.8 billion entered the country, which is 30% more compared to 2023.

"This year, an increase in the volume of remittances is also expected, which will positively affect the income of the population," said the head of the Central Bank.

Meanwhile, transfers from Russia still dominate the overall share, totaling $11.5 billion. However, the share of the Russian Federation among other countries has decreased from 78.2% to 77%, according to the regulator's review.

The World Bank reported back in late December 2023 about the reduction of transfers from the Russian Federation. Experts from the financial institution attributed this to a decrease in the number of migrants and rising inflation in Russia.

It is worth noting that the forecast from the Central Bank nearly aligns with the figures from the International Monetary Fund, which estimates that Uzbekistan's economic growth rate will be 5.7%.